Monday, January 14, 2008

WILL NYC MAYOR MIKE BLOOMBERG RUN?

WILL NYC MAYOR MIKE BLOOMBERG RUN?

By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN

Published on FoxNews.com on January 11, 2008.

While Obama and Clinton wrestle and the four Republican candidates face one another, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s shadow increasingly falls over their playing field. Armed with as much money as he could possibly need to run, this Democrat-turned-Republican could throw the entire race into chaos.

Bloomberg can wait and watch the primaries unfold before making his move. A byproduct of the front loading of the primaries in both parties is that the nominees will probably be chosen with plenty of time for a third party candidate to enter the field. The New York City mayor could either get himself nominated by the Green Party, formerly the vehicle for gadfly Ralph Nader, or set up his own party by petition in the 50 states. His massive financial resources make it possible for him to wait until early Spring before he has to begin collecting signatures if he goes the petition route.

The increasingly bitter nominating contests in both parties seem likely to offer an ample supply of disgruntled voters from whom Bloomberg could draw. Hillary and Obama are girding for a take-no-prisoners battle and the Republican fight seems likely to get equally acrimonious.

But a third party candidacy must gain its traction and impetus from discontent with the other two candidates. It is only frustration with the outcome of the Democratic and Republican nominating processes that would make a Bloomberg candidacy attractive.

Beyond the obvious difficulty Bloomberg would have running against Giuliani, both McCain and Obama would seem to pose obstacles to a viable third party candidacy. Political androgynous candidates, they draw well among both Democrats and Republicans and, so far, seem to alienate relatively few voters. Obama’s charisma has set much of the country ablaze and he appears to have done so without making a lot of enemies.

Boomberg's drawback — inexperience — is not likely to enflame enough voters to power a third party. John McCain may not win the Republican nomination precisely because his ideology and record is so appealing to those outside his party. He is the Democratic Party’s favorite Republican. If he wins the nomination, he can probably count on sufficient popularity on both sides of the race to make a Bloomberg candidacy problematic.

But if Hillary wins the Democratic nomination and either Huckabee or Romney gets the Republican nod, it is easy to see Bloomberg emerging as a very strong alternative. Hillary has a unique ability to make enemies and to polarize the electorate. If she wins the Democratic nomination, tens of millions of Democrats and Independents will want to look elsewhere in the general election. If she wins after a bitter fight with Obama, she might well alienate enough African American voters to make a third party candidacy successful, particularly with Bloomberg’s excellent record in attracting minority support in New York City.

If Huckabee is nominated by the Republicans, he may not be able to escape the evangelical ghetto and might have limited appeal to mainstream voters. Romney would also leave a lot of voters cold if he were to be nominated. The limited national security credentials of both Republicans might also open the door to Bloomberg, who has had extensive experience in fighting terrorism in New York City.

So Bloomberg needs to wait and watch as the other parties choose their nominees. If Hillary is the Democrat and either Huckabee or Romney wins the Republican nomination, he will find enough running room to make it worthwhile to take the shot.

Who would he help and hurt? He’d probably help Hillary more than the Republicans, although he’d draw votes from both parties. But, above all, he would help himself. Bloomberg could win. His money combined with his political savvy acquired facing the second toughest press corps in the nation might make it possible for him to pull it off if the other parties nominate the right people.

MAN TO BEAT: MCCAIN'S CROSS-PARTY APPEAL

MAN TO BEAT: MCCAIN'S CROSS-PARTY APPEAL

By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN

Published in the New York Post on January 12, 2008.

John McCain is starting to look like the candidate to beat for the GOP nomination. Not long ago, he was dismissed, unable to compete with Rudy Giuliani's star power. But with New Hampshire, the tortoise has overtaken the hare.

If McCain wins Michigan on Tuesday (as he did in 2000), Rudy may find himself so far behind before he starts to run that he can never catch up.

McCain could even beat Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. His record taps into a latent populism that attracts Republicans, Democrats and Independents. His battle against big tobacco, efforts to address global warming, opposition to torture during interrogations and fight to reform corporate governance and to protect investors and pensioners appeal to voters of all stripes.

His issues cut across party and ideological lines, for an attraction far broader than the single notes sung by the evangelical Mike Huckabee and the anti-terror Giuliani. His heroism is apparent and his independence from special interests notable. He's pro-life and suitably conservative on social issues, so he attracts conservatives as well as moderates. And his credentials on terrorism and other national-security issues are outstanding.

He's got two main obstacles to overcome: his support for amnesty for illegal immigrants and his age.

* McCain denies that he backed amnesty (citing the fines that illegals would've had to pay to regularize their status under his bill), but conservatives have pinned the label on him so indelibly that it's unlikely to come off no matter how hard he scrubs.

Ultimately, though, he can likely transcend the nativist vote and appeal to the broad spectrum of Republicans. Polls indicate that nobody really believes it is feasible to deport 11 million people back to their home nations. If we can't do that, they'll linger on our streets and in our fields forever, as illegal tomorrow as they are today, unless we move to meet them halfway.

The Pat Buchanans of the world will split their votes between Mitt Romney and Huckabee, so this negative is not likely to prove any more lethal in Michigan, New York or California than it was in New Hampshire.

* His age is a bigger problem. The New Hampshire and Iowa contests were animated by record turnouts. One Granite State voter in five had never voted before in a primary. (Obama carried them by 20 points.) An incredible 11 percent of voters were under 24. (Obama won them, 3 to 1.) With young people storming the polls, a 71-year-old candidate labors under a huge handicap.

But consider his competition: Giuliani, who draws from the same well, has squandered his early lead in what can only be described as a determined passivity. Fred Thompson is also catatonic.

And each primary provides more proof of how how unattractive voters find Romney. Despite massive spending and a field organization with all the efficiency and busy-tailed enthusiasm of a good car-rental company, he still can't sell because people don't like him. His vast checkbook will let him linger on past Michigan, but he loses traction with each balloting.

Huckabee has yet to show an ability to transcend social-conservative issues. His pledge to repeal the IRS and instead adopt a fair tax (i.e., a national sales tax) might help him "go secular," but until he achieves that, he's just a regional candidate - a good vice president pick, not top-tier material.

For the general election, McCain is unique among the GOP field because he can attract centrist votes. He's every Democrat's and independent's favorite Republican. He doesn't have Rudy's hard edges or family problems, and he knows how to push a lot of populist hot buttons, from CEO pay to credit-card overcharges to hedge-fund tax shelters to subprime chicanery.

Being able to win doesn't mean he will win. But McCain is clearly back.

Immigration in their own words‏

Immigration in their own words‏
From: Steve Elliott (alert@grassfire.net)

From the Desk of:Steve Elliott, President, Grassfire.org Alliance

++ Click here to access video footage ofeach of the G.O.P candidates and theirposition on immigration.
http://www.firesociety.com/article/20930/?src=111 ed, This may be the most important update you will receive from Grassfire.orgall year, and I urge you to forward it immediately to your friends andfamily. ed, our research team has compiled special videos from this pastweekend's debates on each of the candidates’ statements on immigration. As the Election Cycle begins in earnest, it is imperative that Grassfireteam members and concerned citizens know what each of the candidates aresaying about immigration. Don't just read what they said, and wade through the media spin. Insteadclick on the link below and actually listen to what each candidate says--in their own words--free from spin.

Click here to access the videos: http://www.firesociety.com/article/20930/?src=111 , I believe there is a very real possibility that the big winnerin the 2008 Presidential race could be the amnesty message.
You heard meright.Unless grassroots citizens--the very same ones who fought so hard to holdblanket amnesty at bay and secure our borders--stay atop the issue, andknow what each candidate is saying, we could end up the biggest loser! Please click below and review each of the video clips,and then forward this message directly to 30-40 friendsand family.

This is a message that must be heard. http://www.firesociety.com/article/20930/?src=111 As always, thank you for taking a stand with Grassfire. Steve Elliott, PresidentGrassfire.org

HERE COME THOSE TEARS

HERE COME THOSE TEARS

By DICK MORRIS

Published on January 8, 2008.

Why did Hillary cry during an ABC interview yesterday?

Some say it was phony, contrived to make her appear more human and empathetic. Wrong. She must have known the political consequences, particularly for a female candidate, of tears. Ed Muskie watered his political grave in New Hampshire in 1972 by crying in public over the false accusation that he had used a derogatory ethnic term to describe French Canadians. Nixon’s dirty tricks people had planted the phony story. But the tears ended Muskie’s candidacy.

Others say that the tears reflected genuine emotion and sorrow for the diminished future prospects of America now that it would not have Hillary Clinton to lead it into the future. Wrong again. Even she is not that arrogant.

The real reason was that her frustration at not being able to control events boiled over and metastasized into tears.

I know because I saw it once before in 1994 after the Democrats lost Congress due, in large part, to her failed health care reform initiative. A few days after the election, she sobbed to me over the phone that she was “bewildered” and that “nothing I do seems to work out.” She confessed to being “totally at a loss” and not to grasp why “nothing is working.”

Hillary is a control freak whose most admirable quality (yes, there are some) is her amazing self-discipline. She wears the right clothing, exercises properly, eats sensibly, stays on script when she answers questions, memorizes the briefing papers, follows the strategy, hits all the right talking points, gets her makeup and hair just right. So why is she losing? The essential equation for her is that if she disciplines herself sufficiently and prepared arduously, she will prevail.

But when she doesn’t, she is at sea. She becomes frustrated by her loss of control and doesn’t know where to turn. She has great faith in gurus and chooses them carefully. But once she invests her faith in one of them, she follows their lead to the end of the earth. But if she doesn’t achieve her objective, if the guru’s instructions prove flawed, she is at a loss as to what to do and she becomes very emotional.

A person who never bends, she sometimes breaks.

Contrast her reaction to adversity with Bill’s. The former president becomes furious. He rants and raves to all who will listen about the injustices being done to him (or to Hillary) and demands redress. He refuses to concede the merit in his attackers but, red in the face, screams in rage at his adversity.

For us the question is which we would rather have as president, an angry, determined, energized chief executive or one who is lost, awash in self-pity and confused by failure? The answer is obvious. Hillary lacks the temperament to be president.

What is the political consequence of her lapse on ABC? Probably huge. Americans are warmed when a politician is moved to tears by the plight of someone else. But they get turned off when it is their own plight that the public figure bewails. Pity for others is positive. Self-pity unforgiveable in our politics. We want a president who will not go to pieces when the missiles start flying.

And, on Monday, in the snows of New Hampshire, Hillary Rodham Clinton failed the test.

NOW BARACK BETTER BRACE FOR BARRAGE

NOW BARACK BETTER BRACE FOR BARRAGE

By DICK MORRIS

Published in the New York Post on January 9, 2008.

Hillary Rodham Clinton's stunning comeback victory in New Hampshire duplicates the feat of Bill Clinton who overcame the draft and Gennifer Flowers in the Granite State primary in 1992.

But Hillary did Bill one better. He placed second. She won. Those who counted Hillary out don't know her and don't know the Clintons.

The clear message of the New Hampshire primary is there is no front-runner, but it's a two-way race between the queen and the challenger that won't be decided by an early knockout.

But Hillary approaches the balance of the month in very good shape.

The Battle of Hillary, in a sense, is over.

She has been challenged and hit, but stayed on her feet. She has weathered the negatives, lost her momentum, and still emerged, in effect, tied for the lead.

Now the Battle of Obama is about to begin.

The negative researchers and detectives who staff the Clinton campaign - we call them the secret police - now go into overdrive combing through the Illinois senator's life for any shred of poison to use.

What did he say (or what does a disgruntled student recall him saying) in each of his constitutional law classes? What causes did he work for as an organizer in Chicago? How did he vote on every issue that came before the Illinois legislature? What are the precise details of his financial life going back to the beginning?

Obama had it right when he joked yesterday that he saw a dump truck pull up alongside him and start beeping! And the theme of Hillary's attack will be that Obama cannot win, that he's not "electable."

By that, she will mean, but never say, that a black man cannot be elected president in middle America. As surely as Bill used the race card by attacking rap singer Sister Souljah in 1992, Hillary will use race to win in 2008.

Hillary has withstood the full force of Obama's momentum. Now we will see if Barack can stand the onslaught he is about to face.

A big question for Obama is whether John Edwards will stay in the race. With less than 20 percent of the New Hampshire vote, he is clearly splitting the anti-Clinton vote.

In recent days, he has gone out of his way to praise Obama. Could he be running for vice president again?

On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani has paid the price for his refusal to campaign actively in the early primaries. He now must contend with John McCain.

The voters of New Hampshire did America a favor by knocking Mitt Romney back and possibly out of the race.

The GOP race will boil down to McCain, Giuliani and Mike Huckabee, a tough choice for down-the-line conservatives, but a choice among candidates who are most electable in November.

Whether or not Huckabee can win is debatable. But McCain and Giuliani sure can depending on which Democrat they end up facing.


THANK YOU!

Building Momentum For Victory

To: McCain Team
From: Rick Davis, Campaign Manager
Date: January 11, 2008
Subject: Building Momentum For Victory


The confetti from the victory party is cleaned up, but the energy on the campaign trail is just as strong as it was on Tuesday night in New Hampshire. John McCain hit the ground running Wednesday with an early flight to Michigan for two exciting rallies before heading down to South Carolina.

I wanted to give you a quick update on our campaign's strategy as we head into these two important primaries -- Michigan on Tuesday and South Carolina on Saturday, January 19th. The momentum and energy from New Hampshire's victory is propelling us toward wins in these two states, but we all know we have much more work ahead of us.

We know our opponents are hungry for an early state win and are throwing their resources at these next two states. However, the good news is that John McCain is positioned to do very well in both contests.

John McCain won the Michigan primary in 2000, and eight years later we believe he's in a strong position in this state. We know that once voters hear John McCain, they respond. Michigan voters are starting to get the McCain message of improving our economy and keeping America safe in the struggle against radical Islamic extremism. Like New Hampshire, Michigan voters appreciate a candidate who is authentic and gives them straight talk on the issues, and we believe that momentum will continue to build in this important state. Moreover, New Hampshire exit polls confirm that John McCain does well with both Republican and Independent voters, and we believe broad-based appeal will play an important role in helping John McCain win in Michigan.

We're also focusing on building a strong team in South Carolina. Thanks to the efforts of our great South Carolina leadership, including Senator Lindsey Graham, Attorney General Henry McMaster, State House Speaker House Bobby Harrell and many others, we've built an enthusiastic base of support in the Palmetto State. One important group in South Carolina is a large coalition of veterans. If anyone understands the need to stand strong against radical Islamic extremists, it is our veterans, and so far reaction has been very positive and support is building for their fellow veteran, John McCain.

While some of our opponents are focusing exclusively on one state, we believe John McCain is prepared to have solid performances in both contests. We've already built strong networks of supporters in both states, and will spend the week ahead working hard to build on the momentum we gained in New Hampshire. Our campaign boasts strong organizations in these states and we have headquarters throughout each where supporters can come and be a part of the momentum on the ground. Our rallies are larger than ever with filled-to-capacity crowds coming to hear Senator McCain's authentic and straight talk on the issues that matter most.

In addition to these two states, we're working hard to build support in Florida. Florida's primary on January 29th represents the last chance to build support heading into "Super Tuesday" on February 5th. This is a large state, which is why we're beginning to organize support and build our Florida Victory Fund right away.

As John McCain reminded us on Tuesday night, our victory in New Hampshire is just the first step in this process - now we must begin again in Michigan, South Carolina and Florida. Early indications are good for our campaign, but that just means it's more important than ever to redouble our efforts to nominate the man we all know is uniquely prepared to be our next commander in chief - John McCain.

You can play an important role in these efforts by doing three simple things today:

First, forward this message to five of your friends to help us build our team. The McCain bandwagon is growing and we're always looking for more people to join our team! Tell them why you are supporting John McCain and invite them to become a part of this exciting campaign.
Next, sign up to make phone calls to Michigan and South Carolina voters to tell them why you support John McCain. You can make these calls right from your own home using our online phone bank tool. Click here to get started today with this important effort.

Finally, help us get our message out in Michigan, South Carolina and beyond by making an online contribution immediately. The great news about online donations is they can immediately be put to use and your donation will help us make important strategic decisions to continue our momentum and keep winning.

Keep up the great work and on to victory!



Rick Davis
Campaign Manager