HOPE FOR MCCAIN: POLLS SAY HE'S CLOSING THE GAP

HOPE FOR MCCAIN: POLLS SAY HE'S CLOSING THE GAP

By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN



Iraq isn't the only place where the surge seems to be working. John McCain's gains over the last five days are remaking the political landscape as Election Day approaches.

The double-digit leads Barack Obama held last week have evaporated, as all three of the top tracking polls (the most current and reliable measurements out there) show McCain hot on Obama's heels.

Zogby had Obama ahead by 12 points last week - now it's down to four. His margin in the Rasmussen poll has dropped from eight points to three in the last few days. Gallup shows only a two-point difference.

In each news cycle, Obama is on the defensive - staving off accusations of closet socialism and trying to wriggle out of his once overt advocacy of income redistribution. "Spreading the wealth around" has become the anti-Obama slogan - and might become the epitaph for his candidacy, just as "brainwashed" was for George Romney and "Where's the beef?" was for Gary Hart.

And, as we head to Halloween, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright's image is returning to haunt Obama. Yes, McCain refused to use the issue in his own campaign - but independent groups like goptrust.com are using funds from tens of thousands of individual donors to run ads featuring Wright and his relationship with Obama. Just yesterday, a tape surfaced in which Obama described Rev. Wright as "the best the black church has to offer."

The double dose of Obama's support for spreading the wealth around and his affiliation with the toxic Rev. Wright are eroding his once-formidable lead.

If the stock market doesn't send us all into shock again, the election could be very close - with the undecided vote looming large. The key question is: About whom are they undecided?

At the height of the financial crisis, voters couldn't decide if McCain was really a maverick or just a Bush clone. But the spotlight has shifted: It's no longer McCain who is caught in its glare, but Obama.

As the Democrat moved convincingly ahead last week, voters began to seriously consider what kind of president he'd be. Bush and McCain seemed increasingly irrelevant as people pondered whether they really want to trust Obama with this kind of power.

By this point, the nature of the undecided vote has likely shifted from people who are torn between wanting change and worrying about Obama to people who have basically decided not to back Barack but haven't sufficiently collected their thoughts to come out for McCain.

Then there's the so-called Bradley effect - where white voters lie to pollsters and say they are backing the black candidate when they're not.

To date, it's been a myth: As The Wall Street Journal reported, Tom Bradly had lost his lead in the polls by the time California voted on his bid to become governor. But it may be real this year.

Undecided voters may be reluctant to say they're not voting for Obama. They may be concealing their real intentions by saying they're undecided. (They might even not have come to grips with their intentions themselves.)

High turnout may also be a wild card. On the surface, it seems sure to bolster Obama's chances as large numbers of poorer, less educated, younger and minority voters turn out to vote for the first time.

But the swelling turnout may have gone beyond this social outreach. And, as it does, it can help McCain. After all, white voters back McCain by double digits. If the contest inspires them all to vote, Obama will lose.

So we approach Election Day with the possibility of a rerun of 2000 plainly before us. McCain has closed to a point where the race will likely be very, very close - and we'll have to stay up very, very late on Election Night.

Go to DickMorris.com to read all of Dick's columns!

Dick Morris sees a surge among ypung voters

MCCAIN SURGES AMONG YOUNG VOTERS




A massive shift in younger and older voters is roiling the presidential race according to new data from the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll concluded October 28-29. Younger voters -- under 45 -- once Obama's base, now are evenly divided between the two candidates. But voters over 65 have shifted sharply to the Democrat in the past week.

Voters under 45 supported Obama by 52-38 in the Fox News poll of October 21-22. But this week's survey indicates that they now break evenly with 45% supporting Obama and 46% backing McCain. On the other hand, voters 65 and over, who had backed Obama by 46-42 last week have now shifted decisively in his favor and he now leads McCain among seniors by 54-39. Middle aged voters -- aged 45-64 -- are largely unchanged in their views. Last week they backed Obama by 48-40 and this week they still support him by 48-43.

Overall, the Fox News survey shows McCain narrowing Obama's lead from 49-40 (9 points) to 47-44 (3 points) over the past week.

The shift in the attitudes of young people may be directly related to the tax issue, brought home by a McCain advertisement featuring Joe the Plumber. Younger voters, trying to make their way in their careers, are more sensitive to changes in taxes than older people, many of whom has retired from the labor force. By attacking Obama for wanting to "spread the wealth around", the McCain camp seems to have struck a nerve among those who are entering the most productive years of their employment history.

On the other hand, seniors may be more comfortable with Obama than they have been previously and might be more accepting of his candidacy. Obama's attacks on McCain over Social Security, always a sensitive topic for the elderly may also be hitting home driving seniors into the Democratic column.

The Fox News/Opinion Dynamics survey was conducted on October 28-29 and surveyed 924 likely voters nationwide. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.

Go to DickMorris.com to read all of Dick's columns!