MAKE OR BREAK IN MICHIGAN
By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN
Published in the New York Post on December 19, 2007.
The Jan. 15 Michigan primary is now looking like the big "elimination round" in the '08 GOP contest - the contest that could bring us down to the final two contenders.
In the semi-finals, to be held in Iowa and New Hampshire, Mitt Romney will face Mike Huckabee to see who's tops among the party's right, while Rudy Giuliani battles John McCain for the more moderate slot.
Huckabee and Romney are likely headed for a split decision, with the former winning Iowa (where he now leads 34 percent to 23 percent) and the later winning New Hampshire (where he now leads, 32-11).
On the centrist court, Rudy has a slender lead over McCain in Iowa (10-6). But the Des Moines Register endorsement of the Arizona senator could pare Giuliani's slim support base. In New Hampshire, McCain holds a tight 19-17 lead over Giuliani as they battle for second place.
Fred Thompson and the other wannabes will likely drop out after Iowa or New Hampshire (except, of course, for crazy Ron Paul, who will never give up the ghost). Then, it will all come down to the third state to vote - the Michigan primary, a week after New Hampshire.
Huckabee will enter Michigan seeking to recapture the momentum he'll have gained after Iowa and lost in New Hampshire. He'll be facing a rap that he could only win in a small farm state like his own after he campaigned there nonstop for months, almost never going home. If he loses Michigan, he'll be gone.
Romney will try to prove that his New Hampshire victory wasn't simply a favorite-son triumph. With two-thirds of New Hampshire watching Boston TV, the win there by the former Massachusetts governor in the first primary will be suspect. The ghost of Paul Tsongas, the Bay State senator who won New Hampshire in 1992, then faded, may haunt Romney's campaign. He'll will labor under the rap that he can't win road games.
Odds are that the winner of Romney vs. Huckabee will face off against Rudy or McCain on Super Tuesday.
In Michigan, Giuliani will seek to show that he loses only in small states like Iowa and New Hampshire and that he can win in a major industrial state. McCain will try to capitalize on his strong showing in New Hampshire to survive and fight on.
In Michigan, Rasmussen is the only pollster with current data. In a Dec. 4 survey, he had a three-way tie: Huckabee at 21 percent; Romney, 20, and Giuliani, 19. (McCain's at 8 percent.)
Romney has an advantage in Michigan, where he's campaigned arduously. His father was governor there and is still fondly remembered.
(The Democratic primary in Michigan doesn't matter because Hillary Clinton is the only major candidate on the ballot. Obama and Edwards both pulled out in fealty to Iowa and New Hampshire, which resented Michigan's decision to hold an early primary.)
After Michigan comes Nevada on Jan. 19. The last two polls (American Research Group and Mason Dixon), taken in early December, show an average of a close three-way contest - Romney at 25 percent, Giuliani at 21 and Huckabee at 20 percent, with McCain trailing at 7.
Then, the race moves to South Carolina, where Huckabee now leads with 24 percent followed by Romney at 17 percent, Rudy at 15 and McCain at 11. (Thompson, should he live so long, is now at 16 percent in the first southern contest.)
But the top two in Michigan are likely be the finalists that will do battle in Florida on Jan. 29 and in the rest of the country on Feb. 5.
Saturday, December 22, 2007
Fence funding hoax exposed, but bill passes?
Fence funding hoax exposed, but bill passes?
From: Steve Elliott (alert@grassfire.net)
Steve Elliott, PresidentGrassfire.org Alliance 12/20/2007
Despite the best efforts of thousands of grassroots citizensacross the country, last night Congress passed the omnibusConsolidated Appropriations bill with the border fence-guttingHutchison amendment. It took a very deceptive, clandestine effort to sneak theFence Act-gutting amendment through Congress. In fact, without the efforts of Grassfire.org team members,I am convinced this Amendment would have sailed through withoutany knowledge of what they were doing and without any opposition.
+ + Hoax exposed But thanks to you, the Fence Funding Hoax has been exposed.Over the past 48 hours, members of Congress and the media haveused OUR talking points
on this issue -- stating plainly thatthe omnibus bill would "gut" the
Secure Fence Act, "eliminate"the double-layer fence requirement, and give DHS the authorityto not even build a fence! ed, the cat is out of the bag!
We have once and for all exposed the funding tricks thatCongress uses
to NOT secure our borders, and the Americanpeople will not be fooled again. For example, last night, Glenn Beck led off his TV show withthe fence
funding hoax. The story was covered by the AssociatedPress, Lou Dobbs, Washington Times and many other outlets. EvenSam Brownback said reducing the border
fence was "uncacceptable." I have listed links to several of the news
reports on the
Funding Hoaxhere: http://www.firesociety.com/article/19402/?src=111
+ + The battle ahead...
I know you share my frustration -- my anger --that Congress succeeded
in gutting the Secure Fence Act's specificrequirements. This entire episode leaves me more distrusting of our electedofficials. (Even many of our "friends" on the Hill voted for this bill.We suspect many were totally unaware of the Fence Funding Hoax.) But it also makes me more convinced that the real solution tothe illegal invasion crisis ultimately rests with grassrootsAmericans like you and me. Let's face facts: No politician is going to secure our borders.Only a massive effort by grassroots Americans can make it happen.That will be our challenge in 2008 -- to move from defense tooffense in the struggle to stop the illegal invasion.
+ + You did the impossible in 2007! For now, on behalf of the entire Grassfire.org team, please acceptmy deepest thanks for all you have done this year. You did somethingthat pundits said was impossible -- you stopped the Bush-KennedyAmnesty push. You stopped the other amnesty bills that cropped up.These efforts are still resonating through the halls of Congressas politicians fear a similar backlash from the American people. Thank you so much for all you have done and continue. And may youhave a wonderful Christmas season with family and friends. Steve Elliott, PresidentGrassfire.org Alliance
P.S. I would very much enjoy reading your comments on this update,as well as your thoughts as we finish this year and move aheadinto next year. Please go here: http://www.firesociety.com/comments/20389/?src=111
From: Steve Elliott (alert@grassfire.net)
Steve Elliott, PresidentGrassfire.org Alliance 12/20/2007
Despite the best efforts of thousands of grassroots citizensacross the country, last night Congress passed the omnibusConsolidated Appropriations bill with the border fence-guttingHutchison amendment. It took a very deceptive, clandestine effort to sneak theFence Act-gutting amendment through Congress. In fact, without the efforts of Grassfire.org team members,I am convinced this Amendment would have sailed through withoutany knowledge of what they were doing and without any opposition.
+ + Hoax exposed But thanks to you, the Fence Funding Hoax has been exposed.Over the past 48 hours, members of Congress and the media haveused OUR talking points
on this issue -- stating plainly thatthe omnibus bill would "gut" the
Secure Fence Act, "eliminate"the double-layer fence requirement, and give DHS the authorityto not even build a fence! ed, the cat is out of the bag!
We have once and for all exposed the funding tricks thatCongress uses
to NOT secure our borders, and the Americanpeople will not be fooled again. For example, last night, Glenn Beck led off his TV show withthe fence
funding hoax. The story was covered by the AssociatedPress, Lou Dobbs, Washington Times and many other outlets. EvenSam Brownback said reducing the border
fence was "uncacceptable." I have listed links to several of the news
reports on the
Funding Hoaxhere: http://www.firesociety.com/article/19402/?src=111
+ + The battle ahead...
I know you share my frustration -- my anger --that Congress succeeded
in gutting the Secure Fence Act's specificrequirements. This entire episode leaves me more distrusting of our electedofficials. (Even many of our "friends" on the Hill voted for this bill.We suspect many were totally unaware of the Fence Funding Hoax.) But it also makes me more convinced that the real solution tothe illegal invasion crisis ultimately rests with grassrootsAmericans like you and me. Let's face facts: No politician is going to secure our borders.Only a massive effort by grassroots Americans can make it happen.That will be our challenge in 2008 -- to move from defense tooffense in the struggle to stop the illegal invasion.
+ + You did the impossible in 2007! For now, on behalf of the entire Grassfire.org team, please acceptmy deepest thanks for all you have done this year. You did somethingthat pundits said was impossible -- you stopped the Bush-KennedyAmnesty push. You stopped the other amnesty bills that cropped up.These efforts are still resonating through the halls of Congressas politicians fear a similar backlash from the American people. Thank you so much for all you have done and continue. And may youhave a wonderful Christmas season with family and friends. Steve Elliott, PresidentGrassfire.org Alliance
P.S. I would very much enjoy reading your comments on this update,as well as your thoughts as we finish this year and move aheadinto next year. Please go here: http://www.firesociety.com/comments/20389/?src=111
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