Pew Research Projects Population Will Reach 438 Million

Pew Research Projects Population Will Reach 438 Million in 2050; 82 Percent of Growth Attributable to Immigration

Last Monday, the Pew Research Center released a study which projects that U.S. population will grow by 48 percent between 2005 and 2050, and that 82 percent of this growth will come from immigration — both legal and illegal — to the United States. The report, authored by Jeffery S. Passel and D'Vera Cohn of the Pew Research Center, predicts that the population of the United States, which was 296 million in 2005, will be 438 million by 2050 if current trends continue. Of these 142 million additional people, 67 million will be immigrants and 50 million will represent the children or the grandchildren of these immigrants. (Pew Research Center, U.S. Population Projections: 2005-2050, February 11, 2008) The findings of the Pew Research Study are similar to that of a 2006 FAIR study which found the U.S. population in 2050 would be a minimum of 445 million. (Projecting the U.S. Population to 2050: Four Scenarios)

The report also estimates that between 2005 and 2050, the foreign-born population will more than double from 36 million to 81 million. As a result, the foreign-born share of the population will rise from 12 percent of the population in 2005 to nearly 19 percent of the population in 2050. Pew Research also estimates that sometime between 2020 and 2025, the foreign-born percentage of the population will exceed its historic peak of 14.8 percent reached in 1890. Commenting on these findings, Mark Krikorian of the Center for Immigration Studies stated, "we need to ask ourselves if we want the 100 million more people immigration will bring. Do you want 80 million more cars on the road, or 40 million homes occupying what's now open space?" (Washington Post, February 12, 2008)

In announcing the report, co-author Jeffery Passel carefully pointed out that the projection is simply an extrapolation from current trends that could change through intervening events. For example, Passel pointed to its conclusions regarding the ethnic composition of the population in 2050, noting that it assumes the same definitions and categories used today will continue to be used in the next 50 years. Thus, predictions could change not only in the face of changed immigration policy, but due to shifting categories and perceptions about the population. (USAToday, February 11, 2008)

To read the Pew Research Center population in its entirety, click here.