HOPE FOR MCCAIN: POLLS SAY HE'S CLOSING THE GAP

HOPE FOR MCCAIN: POLLS SAY HE'S CLOSING THE GAP

By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN



Iraq isn't the only place where the surge seems to be working. John McCain's gains over the last five days are remaking the political landscape as Election Day approaches.

The double-digit leads Barack Obama held last week have evaporated, as all three of the top tracking polls (the most current and reliable measurements out there) show McCain hot on Obama's heels.

Zogby had Obama ahead by 12 points last week - now it's down to four. His margin in the Rasmussen poll has dropped from eight points to three in the last few days. Gallup shows only a two-point difference.

In each news cycle, Obama is on the defensive - staving off accusations of closet socialism and trying to wriggle out of his once overt advocacy of income redistribution. "Spreading the wealth around" has become the anti-Obama slogan - and might become the epitaph for his candidacy, just as "brainwashed" was for George Romney and "Where's the beef?" was for Gary Hart.

And, as we head to Halloween, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright's image is returning to haunt Obama. Yes, McCain refused to use the issue in his own campaign - but independent groups like goptrust.com are using funds from tens of thousands of individual donors to run ads featuring Wright and his relationship with Obama. Just yesterday, a tape surfaced in which Obama described Rev. Wright as "the best the black church has to offer."

The double dose of Obama's support for spreading the wealth around and his affiliation with the toxic Rev. Wright are eroding his once-formidable lead.

If the stock market doesn't send us all into shock again, the election could be very close - with the undecided vote looming large. The key question is: About whom are they undecided?

At the height of the financial crisis, voters couldn't decide if McCain was really a maverick or just a Bush clone. But the spotlight has shifted: It's no longer McCain who is caught in its glare, but Obama.

As the Democrat moved convincingly ahead last week, voters began to seriously consider what kind of president he'd be. Bush and McCain seemed increasingly irrelevant as people pondered whether they really want to trust Obama with this kind of power.

By this point, the nature of the undecided vote has likely shifted from people who are torn between wanting change and worrying about Obama to people who have basically decided not to back Barack but haven't sufficiently collected their thoughts to come out for McCain.

Then there's the so-called Bradley effect - where white voters lie to pollsters and say they are backing the black candidate when they're not.

To date, it's been a myth: As The Wall Street Journal reported, Tom Bradly had lost his lead in the polls by the time California voted on his bid to become governor. But it may be real this year.

Undecided voters may be reluctant to say they're not voting for Obama. They may be concealing their real intentions by saying they're undecided. (They might even not have come to grips with their intentions themselves.)

High turnout may also be a wild card. On the surface, it seems sure to bolster Obama's chances as large numbers of poorer, less educated, younger and minority voters turn out to vote for the first time.

But the swelling turnout may have gone beyond this social outreach. And, as it does, it can help McCain. After all, white voters back McCain by double digits. If the contest inspires them all to vote, Obama will lose.

So we approach Election Day with the possibility of a rerun of 2000 plainly before us. McCain has closed to a point where the race will likely be very, very close - and we'll have to stay up very, very late on Election Night.

Go to DickMorris.com to read all of Dick's columns!

note from Bob Barr

Dear Friend,

This weekend, millions of Americans will celebrate our Independence Day. They will gather in parks and on front lawns, fire up their grills and enjoy an evening of fireworks, family and friendship.

Children will wave sparklers in the air, tracing figure eights, while fathers will light seemingly endless fuses of fountains and firecrackers.

Most revel on the Fourth of July as a matter of tradition - and it is a good one. I have celebrated this day throughout my life, even when I lived in nations that did not cherish freedom.

When I reflect on our Independence Day traditions, I am deeply grateful that Americans continue to celebrate this historic day, but I am also saddened by our combined failure to stop the continued encroachment upon our freedom.

Each July 4th, I look back at our year and can literally count the ways in which the path set forth by our forefathers has been distorted and, many times, betrayed.

We live in a nation bursting with people who love liberty but governed by men who lust for power.

For over 100 years, those designing men have been enabled by a political system that favors and protects the powerful.

Republicans and Democrats have maintained and significantly increased their hold on the reigns of our government regardless of the damage that has been done to the men, women and children who work, love, live and die in our great nation.

Today's America does not resemble the intent clearly laid out within that document that was signed by patriots 232 years ago.

They put more than ink to paper when they signed the Declaration of Independence; they placed their lives, families, prosperity and honor on the line for liberty.

Our founders knew that we are endowed by our creator with certain unalienable rights. They held no tolerance for the thought that we are granted rights by government.

Our rights, our decisions, our very lives are ours. It is through individual responsibility by which we prosper or fail - not by state decree or legislation.

When Jefferson added the word "among" into the phrase, "among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness," he was defiantly stating that our rights are self-defined, short of depriving another of their life or liberty.

Since the day that the Declaration of Independence was signed, we appear to have lost the meaning and intent of the words: independence, freedom and liberty.

Instead, those words have been echoed with abuse on campaign trails and government buildings by politicians who use them as Orwellian tools to mean just the opposite.

We now use "freedom" as an excuse to invade sovereign nations.

The protection of "liberty" is now an excuse to take it from us.

But today, during this election year, we have the opportunity to change the course of events.

We have a chance to send a message to Washington that will rock its foundation.

Together, we can make the word LIBERTY ring true with deafening accord.

My candidacy for President of the United States is not one of vanity or shallowness. I, probably just like you, have had my eyes forced open by a government that wants to take all that it can from me and my family.

I am running for president to stand firm and demand a return of my liberty, my privacy, my labor and the peaceful heritage of my nation.

I ask you to stand with me.

Together we face the two-party behemoth that will do all that it can to silence us.

That's why I need your help today and in the future.

I respectfully ask that you support my candidacy by making a donation today.

Given the state of our economy, I know that times are tough. They are tough for all of us and that's why we so desperately need real change in our nation.

If you can, please donate today, as your contribution is urgently needed to move our campaign forward.

As important, over this coming weekend as you are spending times with friends and loved ones, take a minute and attempt to educate them as to the true meaning of liberty and how it has been lost in our nation and ask them to stand with us.


Respectfully,



Bob Barr



P.S. Please donate today so that we can meet our goal by Independence Day. This show of support as we near this historic day is very important to me. Donate today.